COLDER LATER NEXT WEEK

POSTED  SATURDAY February 4, 2012  1:00 AM UPDATE

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES, WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON SATURDAY, BEFORE
SLIDING JUST TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING EITHER THE LOW PRESSURE OR ITS WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS
OUR AREA, HOWEVER, WE DO EXPECT SOME OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT TO AFFECT OUR AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGH AT THIS TIME, GENERALLY
ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE TIME PERIOD FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL DELMARVA. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE PRECIPITATION HAPPENING, SO WE UPPED OUR POPS,
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW COOL IT GETS AND
WHAT TYPE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE THE WARMEST, KEEPING MOSTLY
RAIN, WHILE THE NAM/SREF ARE THE COOLEST, MIXING AND/OR CHANGING A
GOOD BIT OF THE AREA TO SNOW. WE HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN, BUT STILL BLEND IN SOME OF THE NAM/SREF. RIGHT
NOW WE EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS RAIN, BUT IT
COULD MIX WITH AND/OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. BEING WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF
AMOUNTS THIS FAR NORTH, SNOW AMOUNTS HERE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN
TAPERING OFF LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY, AND BE COMPLETELY OVER BY
SUNDOWN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TRY TO NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY
THROUGH MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY, A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A QUICK
MOVING SHORT WAVE DIVING OUR WAY OUT OF CANADA. AS MENTIONED, THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY, ALTHOUGH WE WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE POCONOS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS STILL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE A BIT FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK`S FORECAST. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY, THE ECMWF
TRIES TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THURSDAY, THEN A MOVE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE THIS COASTAL LOW,
BUT DOES BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL, WITH A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THESE FEATURES SHOULD BECOME BETTER
DETERMINED IN THE DAYS TO COME, BUT FOR NOW WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.