Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Stormy Week Ahead!

Sunday March 1, 2015

March comes in like a lion and roars all week.

Snow is expected to overspread the area Sunday between 11 AM and 1:00 PM. The snow will increase in intensity as the afternoon wares on.  This will be an all snow event for our area.  Residual heavy salt and chemical buildup on roadways and the stronger March sun will keep roads mostly wet through the day until 4 PM when more moderate snow and lowering sun angle allows for a rapid cover over and icy conditions.   The snow will continue into the night and then begin to taper off to flurries between 1-3 AM.  The overnight ending time should allow for ample time to recover the removal process as to not disrupt the morning commute.  We expect 3-5 inches across the entire area with up to 6 in the higher elevations Roads should be slushy and wet by morning as temperatures will rise into the low 30s. We expect to see temperatures in the low to mid 30s with some sun Monday afternoon before much colder air arrives during the late afternoon. Hard freeze is expected as slush and water creates hazardous conditions later Monday night.

Another stronger weather system looks to affect the area Tuesday afternoon into Thursday. Snow will once again over spread the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night. This time with the storm track to our west  the warmer air will change the snow to freezing rain Tuesday night then to rain on Wednesday.
This system is packing a punch and there are still uncertainties in the models as to how much warming briefly develops. The potential for a strip of significant freezing rain exists across areas to our north. If a full changeover does occur some models drop heavy rain in parts of the area with temperatures reaching 40. Some flooding is possible if heavy rain develops.  The ground is so frozen that snow melt will not be significant and the rain should be absorbed by the snow pack with street runoff.  A quick return of colder air may change the rain to snow Wednesday night into Thursday.  If a coastal storm forms on the cold front Wednesday night then the snow could be significant, without a coastal development we will just see the rain end as flurries. Very complicated weather situation as we begin to see a pattern change.   Another shot of very cold arctic air (possibly the last for the season) arrives later in the week.  Some good news, there are some indications that spring may come with vengeance after the 15th, stay tuned.

CLIMO
We have just ended what may be the second coldest February on record with average temperature running 10-12 degrees below normal.  Snowfall, although frequent was below normal by a good margin. Remember February statistically is our coldest , snowiest month.
March 1st marks the beginning of meteorological spring. Even though spring officially arrives March 20, from a weather standpoint winter is measured between December 1st and March 1st . March 1st also begins the active tornado season.  March is a violent and wild month weather wise with temperatures that have reach as high as 86 and as low as -20 in our area.  Three of the worst storms to strike the northeast came in the first 15 days of March. The famous blizzard of 1888, the 5 day Superstorm/Nor'easter  of 1962 and the Superstorm Blizzard of 1993, the devastating Passaic Basin flood of late March 1984, and an Easter blizzard on March 29th.

****BEGINNING TO SEE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS LATE TONIGHT THAT THE STORM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE QUITE A BLOCKBUSTER SNOW EVENT, THIS SYSTEM STILL OUT IN THE PACIFIC WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.***

Tony S